Sizing of Small Hydropower Plants for Highly Variable Flows in Tropical Run-of-River Installations: A Case Study of the Sebeya River

Rivers in tropical climates are characterized by highly variable flows which becoming more due to climate change. In conditions, most hydropower plants designed as run-of-river with limited water storage. The aim of this study is the selection and sizing a plant for flows, using Sebeya River case study. As often case, flow data was incomplete, also demonstrated use machine learning predict rate 2019. Stochastic modeling used estimate energy generation multiple turbine types levelized cost all configurations, capturing uncertainty many input parameters. varies between 1.3 m3/s 5.5 year; minimum LCOE occurs at knee exceedance curve river rate, near 1.8 m3/s. optimal around 0.08 $/kwh an −0.011/+0.009 $/kWh. Additionally, certain types—notably propeller turbines—perform poorly type flow. method findings can be guide future investments small- mid-sized similar climatic conditions.